varun86

Polymarket-bot

4 Strategies to trade on Polymarket in one bot

0
0
0
public
Forked
View on GitHub

🤖 Polymarket Trading Bot v3.1 - Enhanced Risk Management

The Ultimate Open-Source Automated Trading Bot for Polymarket

English
Arabic

Created by: @Mr_CryptoYT

🆕 What’s New in v3.1 (January 2026)

🔴 Professional-Grade Risk Management

  • ✅ 4-Layer Protection System: Daily (5%), Monthly (15%), Drawdown (25%), Total Loss Halt (40%)
  • ✅ Smart Money Filtering: Only follow traders with 60%+ win rate, 1.5x profit factor, and consistency checks
  • ✅ Dynamic Position Sizing: Automatically reduces during losses, increases during wins
  • ✅ Enhanced Monitoring: Real-time risk status with breach alerts

🛡️ Safety Improvements

  • ✅ Minimum Trade Enforcement: All DipArb positions ≥ $1.50 (guaranteed exit capability)
  • ✅ Gas Fee Accounting: Higher profit thresholds to cover transaction costs
  • ✅ Whale Trade Detection: Prevents following lucky one-hit wonders
  • ✅ Permanent Halt: Trading stops automatically at 40% total loss

This guide will take you from A to Z on how to set up, configure, and run your own trading bot safely.

📋 Table of Contents

  1. Prerequisites
  2. Installation
  3. Configuration
  4. Running the Bot
  5. Dashboard Guide
  6. Risk Management
  7. Strategies Explained
  8. Troubleshooting
  9. Safety & Risks

1. Prerequisites

Before you start, you need three things:

💻 Computer Requirements

  • OS: Windows, Mac, or Linux.
  • Node.js: You must have Node.js installed (Version 18 or higher).
  • Git: Required to download the code.

💰 Wallet Requirements

  • A Polymarket Account: Log in to Polymarket.com.
  • USDC (Polygon): You need funds to trade.
    • USDC.e is the specific token used on Polygon for Polymarket.
  • MATIC (Polygon): You need a small amount ($1-$5) for gas fees.

🔑 Private Key

  • You need the Private Key of your wallet (e.g., from MetaMask or your Polymarket proxy wallet).
  • Security Note: Never share this key with anyone.

2. Installation

Open your terminal (Command Prompt or PowerShell on Windows, Terminal on Mac) and run these commands one by one.

Step 1: Clone the Repository

Download the bot code to your computer.

git clone https://github.com/MrFadiAi/Polymarket-bot.git
cd Polymarket-bot

(Note: If you downloaded the ZIP file instead, just unzip it and open the folder in your terminal)

Step 2: Install Dependencies & Build Dashboard

This installs all the “parts” the bot needs to run and builds the dashboard interface.

# Install main dependencies
npm install

# Build the dashboard (Critical Step!)
cd dashboard
npm install
npm run build
cd ..

This process might take 1-3 minutes.

3. Configuration

This is the most important step. We need to tell the bot your wallet details.

Step 1: Create the .env File

  1. Find the file named .env.example in the folder.
  2. Copy it and rename the copy to .env.

Step 2: Add Your Credentials

Open the .env file with any text editor (Notepad, VS Code) and fill in your details:

# ==============================================
# 🔑 WALLET CONFIGURATION (REQUIRED)
# ==============================================

# Your Wallet Private Key (Export from MetaMask)
# Format: 0x...
POLYMARKET_PRIVATE_KEY=0xYourPrivateKeyHere

# ==============================================
# ⚙️ BOT SETTINGS
# ==============================================

# CAPITAL (Your risk budget - NOT your wallet balance)
# This determines position sizes and risk limits
# Start with a small amount for testing
CAPITAL_USD=250

# DRY RUN MODE
# "true" = Simulation Mode (No real money used, SAFE to test)
# "false" = Live Trading (Real money used, BE CAREFUL)
DRY_RUN=true

# 🆕 RISK MANAGEMENT (Optional - defaults are conservative)
DAILY_MAX_LOSS_PCT=0.05      # 5% daily loss limit
MONTHLY_MAX_LOSS_PCT=0.15    # 15% monthly loss limit
MAX_DRAWDOWN_PCT=0.25        # 25% drawdown from peak
TOTAL_MAX_LOSS_PCT=0.40      # 40% total loss = permanent halt

# API Keys (Optional but recommended for speed)
# Get a free key from specific providers if you want better performance
# ALCHEMY_KEY=...

⚠️ IMPORTANT:

  • Start with DRY_RUN=true and CAPITAL_USD=50 for testing
  • Only change to DRY_RUN=false when you are 100% sure everything works

4. Running the Bot

Now the fun part! Let’s start the bot with the visual dashboard.

Run this command:

npx tsx bot-with-dashboard.ts

What happens next?

  1. The terminal will show startup logs.
  2. It will verify your wallet connection.
  3. The Dashboard will open automatically in your browser at http://localhost:3001.

If it doesn’t open, just click that link.

5. Dashboard Guide

The dashboard is your command center with enhanced risk monitoring.

Main Panels

  • Mode Indicator: Shows if you are in 🔴 LIVE or 🟢 DRY RUN mode.
  • Mode Toggle: Click the “Switch to LIVE/DRY RUN” button to instantly switch modes.
  • Balances: Real-time view of your MATIC and USDC.
  • PnL Panel: Tracks your Profit and Loss per session.

🆕 Risk Status Panel

  • Daily Limit: Shows usage of 5% daily loss limit
  • Monthly Limit: Shows usage of 15% monthly loss limit
  • Drawdown: Current drawdown from peak capital
  • Consecutive Tracker: Win/loss streak counter
  • Status Indicators: 🔴 BREACHED or ✅ OK for each limit

Quick Actions

  • Strategy Toggles: Enable/disable strategies in real-time
  • Emergency Stop: Instantly halt all trading
  • Panic Sell: Close all positions (use with caution)

6. Risk Management

🆕 Multi-Layer Protection System

The bot now has 4 layers of protection to safeguard your capital:

Layer 1: Daily Loss Limit (5%)

  • What it does: Stops trading if you lose 5% in one day
  • Action: Pauses for 60 minutes, then resumes
  • Example: With $250 capital, stops at -$12.50 daily loss

Layer 2: Monthly Loss Limit (15%)

  • What it does: Stops trading if you lose 15% in 30 days
  • Action: Pauses for 30 days (rest of month)
  • Example: With $250 capital, stops at -$37.50 monthly loss

Layer 3: Drawdown Limit (25%)

  • What it does: Monitors drop from your peak capital
  • Action: Pauses for 7 days if exceeded
  • Example: Peak $300, stops if drops below $225

Layer 4: Total Loss Halt (40%)

  • What it does: PERMANENT HALT if total loss reaches 40%
  • Action: Stops trading entirely, requires manual restart
  • Example: With $250 capital, halts at -$100 total loss

🆕 Smart Position Sizing

The bot now adapts position sizes based on performance:

  • Base Size: 2% of capital (down from 3%)
  • During Losses: Reduces by 20% per consecutive loss
  • During Wins: Increases by 10% per consecutive win (capped at 5%)
  • Example:
    • Normal: $250 × 2% = $5/trade
    • After 3 losses: $5 × 0.8 × 0.8 = $3.20/trade
    • After 5 wins: $5 × 1.4 = $7/trade (capped at $12.50)

7. Strategies Explained

The bot comes with 4 powerful strategies. You can toggle them ON/OFF in the dashboard.

1. ⚖️ Arbitrage

  • Concept: Finds markets where YES Price + NO Price < $1.00.
  • Action: Buys both sides immediately.
  • Profit: Guaranteed math-based profit when the market resolves to $1.00.
  • 🆕 v3.1: Higher profit threshold (1%) to cover gas fees
  • Risk: Extremely Low.

2. 📉 DipArb (Dip Arbitrage)

  • Concept: Watches for panic selling in 15-minute crypto markets (BTC, ETH).
  • Trigger: If price crashes >15% in 3 seconds.
  • Action: Buys the dip (Leg 1) and hedges with the opposite side (Leg 2).
  • 🆕 v3.1: Minimum $1.50 trade value (all positions can be exited)
  • Risk: Low-Medium (hedged positions).

3. 🐋 Smart Money (🆕 Enhanced)

  • Concept: Tracks the top profitable traders on the leaderboard.
  • 🆕 Strict Filtering:
    • ✅ Minimum 60% win rate (up from 50%)
    • ✅ Minimum $500 total PnL (up from $100)
    • ✅ Profit Factor ≥ 1.5x (wins/losses ratio)
    • ✅ Consistency score 70%+ (recent performance)
    • ✅ No whale trades (max 30% PnL from one trade)
  • Action: Copies their trades automatically.
  • Risk: Medium (depends on trader quality).

4. ⚡ Direct Trading

  • Concept: Tools for manual trading with super-powers.
  • Features:
    • FOK (Fill or Kill): Ensures your whole order fills or cancels.
    • Sniper: Quick buy buttons slightly above market price.
  • 🆕 v3.1: Stop-loss (15%), Take-profit (25%), Max hold (7 days)
  • Risk: Controlled (with new limits).

8. Troubleshooting

“Command not found” error?

  • Make sure you installed Node.js. Restart your computer if you just installed it.

“Connection Failed”?

  • Check your internet.
  • Verify your POLYMARKET_PRIVATE_KEY is correct in .env.

“Insufficient Funds”?

  • You need both USDC (for trades) and MATIC (for gas) on the Polygon Network.

“Trade value below minimum”?

  • This is the new $1.50 minimum protection. Increase your CAPITAL_USD or wait for better prices.

Bot paused unexpectedly?

  • Check the Risk Status panel - you may have hit a daily/monthly/drawdown limit.
  • This is a safety feature working as intended.

9. Safety & Risks

✅ Built-in Safety Features (v3.1)

  1. Multi-Layer Limits: 4 levels of automatic protection
  2. Quality Trader Filtering: Only follow proven, consistent traders
  3. Position Size Limits: Maximum 5% per trade, adapts to performance
  4. Minimum Trade Values: All positions can be exited (no stuck trades)
  5. Permanent Halt: Trading stops at 40% total loss

⚠️ Your Responsibilities

  1. Private Keys: Your key gives full access to your funds. Keep it safe.
  2. Start Small:
    • Use Dry Run first (24-48 hours)
    • Then test with $50 real money
    • Scale up gradually to $250+
  3. Monitor Regularly: Check the Risk Status panel daily
  4. Understand Limits: Know what triggers each safety layer
  5. Capital Management: Set CAPITAL_USD to what you can afford to lose
  1. Day 1-2: Dry run mode (DRY_RUN=true, CAPITAL_USD=50)
  2. Day 3-9: Live testing (DRY_RUN=false, CAPITAL_USD=50)
  3. Day 10+: Scale up if profitable (CAPITAL_USD=250)

🚨 Emergency Actions

If something goes wrong:

  1. Click “Emergency Stop” in dashboard
  2. Or press Ctrl+C in terminal
  3. Use “Panic Sell” only if absolutely necessary

📚 Additional Resources

📈 Version History

  • v3.1 (January 2026): Enhanced Risk Management, Smart Money improvements, Dynamic sizing
  • v3.0 (December 2025): Dashboard, Multi-strategy support, Auto-rotation
  • v2.0 (November 2025): Smart Money, Arbitrage, DipArb strategies
  • v1.0 (October 2025): Initial release

Created by: @Mr_CryptoYT

Support: Open an issue on GitHub or contact via Twitter

⚠️ Disclaimer: Trading involves risk. This bot does not guarantee profits. Always trade responsibly and never invest more than you can afford to lose.

v0.3.3[beta]